Prediction ICBM-INDIA-08 stated that:
India will test an inter-continental ballistic missile (with a minimum range of 8000 kms) before 31 Dec 2008.
There have not been any reports of an inter-continental ballistic missile test being held by India in any of the news outlets. Hence this prediction is being judged as false and returns 0 Moolers per held share.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price rose to 60 Moolers/share for some time but then fell to 10 Moolers/share by end 2006, where it remained till the end. The public got it right again!
Prediction BURJ-DUBAI-776 stated that:
This scaled prediction will pay (height-800)/2, where “height” is the height in meters of the antenna/spire of Burj Dubai as of Dec 31, 2008.
If the height is greater than 1000 meters, the claim will return 100 Moolers and a height less than 800 meters would return 0 Moolers. The claim may be judged earlier if the tower is finished and occupied before the arbitration deadline.
As per reports on Wikipedia, the Burj Dubai stood at 818 m on January 17, 2009. There are no reports on the height as of Dec 31, 2008 and hence the height of 818 m is going to be used for closing the prediction. As per the calculation stated in the original prediction, the prediction returns a value of 9 Moolers ([818-800]/2) per share held.
The trading on this prediction started at 30 Moolers per share. The selling price fell to 50 Moolers/share by early 2008 and remained there for some time, before falling to 48 Moolers/share. The public got it a bit wrong this time!
Prediction BUSH-95 stated that:
This prediction states that before the arbitration date either a simple majority of the US House of Representatives will vote to impeach Mr. George W. Bush or he will resign from office. Note that it is not necessary for the Senate to convict Mr. Bush for this claim to be true. Online reports carried by CNN and BBC websites will be used as the basis for judging the claim.
George Bush was not impeached from office and Barack Obama succeeded him in office in the normal course and hence this prediction is being judged as false and returns 0 Moolers.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price fell to 20 Moolers/share by mid 2006 and remained there for some time, and then fell to 7 Moolers/share. The public got it right again!
Prediction US-IRAN-775 stated that:
This claim states that the US forces would attacks Iran on the order of the President of USA.
A event like a rogue general ordering a military attack without prior authorization from the U.S. President is not enough to judge this claim as true.
No news outlets have reported an attack on Iran by USA and hence this prediction is being judged as false and returns 0 Moolers.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price stabilised at 64 Moolers/share by mid 2008 and remained there till the end. Looks like the public was wrong this time around.
Prediction CONGRESS-DELHI-08 stated that:
This prediction states that Indian National Congress will secure a simple majority in the capital again, in the next Assembly elections in 2008 (or sooner, if the assembly assembly elections are held earlier).
Having won 42 out of 69 seats, Congress has secured a simple majority in the Delhi elections and hence this prediction is being judged as TRUE.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price stabilised at 60 Moolers/share for some time before climbing to 80 Moolers per share just before the elections were held.
Prediction MUSH-QUITS-08 stated that
Musharraf: Will step down by March 2008
General Pervez Musharraf has not stepped down as the President of Pakistan, forcefully or otherwise by the date of arbitration and hence this prediction is judged false and returns 0 Moolers. The last buy on this prediction was 15 Moolers. Looks like the Public got it right this time too!
Prediction BIRD-FLU-07 stated that
“Bird Flu: will kill 10 million people by end-2007″
There was no reported outbreak of Bird Flu pandemics in the scale predicted by this prediction. The prediction opened at 40 Moolers per share, went down to around 10 Moolers a share and back to 40 per share way back in May 2007, where it remained until it was closed.
The Burj Dubai is a skyscraper currently under construction in the “New Downtown” of Dubai, United Arab Emirates whose final height is kept a secret.
This scaled prediction will pay (height-800)/2, where “height” is the height in meters of the antenna/spire of Burj Dubai as of Dec 31, 2008.
If the height is greater than 1000 meters, the claim will return 100 Moolers and a height less than 800 meters would return 0 Moolers. The claim may be judged earlier if the tower is finished and occupied before the arbitration deadline.
More Info:
In February 2007, the Burj Dubai surpassed the Sears Tower as the building with the most floors in the world. As of 20 May 2007 the tower’s height was 460.1 meters (1,510 feet), with 129 floors.(source)
The projected final height of the Burj Dubai is officially being kept a secret due to competition; however, figures released by a contractor on the project have suggested a height of around 808 metres (2,651 feet).Based on this height, the total number of habitable floors is expected to be around 162. However, on the project’s official website, an interior graphic of an elevator panel shows floor numbers up to 195. (source)
100 shares of this prediction [symbol: BURJ-DUBAI-776] are available for purchase on the PublicGyan exchange at an initial price of 30 moolers each, following Dutch rules.
This claim states that the US forces would attacks Iran on the order of the President of USA.
A event like a rogue general ordering a military attack without prior authorization from the U.S. President is not enough to judge this claim as true.
In the event ambiguity, moderators will base their judgment on the intent of the claim. The claim can be judged earlier if the event happens before the arbitration deadline.
100 shares of this prediction [symbol: US-IRAN-775] are available for purchase on the PublicGyan exchange at an initial price of 50 moolers each, following Dutch rules.
Prediction THAROOR-127 stated that
Sashi Tharoor will be elected as the next UN Secretary-General.
As reported on several news sites, after the latest informal Security Council ballot results, Shashi Tharoor had announced he was leaving the race.
Hence, this prediction is being judged as FALSE and is closed, returning 0 Moolers per share.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price had climbed to 60 Moolers/share before the arbitration. Unfortunately, this time around, the public predicted wrong!