It’s about Public Knowledge Exchange
Prediction MUSH-QUITS-08 stated that
Musharraf: Will step down by March 2008
General Pervez Musharraf has not stepped down as the President of Pakistan, forcefully or otherwise by the date of arbitration and hence this prediction is judged false and returns 0 Moolers. The last buy on this prediction was 15 Moolers. Looks like the Public got it right this time too!
Prediction BIRD-FLU-07 stated that
“Bird Flu: will kill 10 million people by end-2007″
There was no reported outbreak of Bird Flu pandemics in the scale predicted by this prediction. The prediction opened at 40 Moolers per share, went down to around 10 Moolers a share and back to 40 per share way back in May 2007, where it remained until it was closed.
The Burj Dubai is a skyscraper currently under construction in the “New Downtown” of Dubai, United Arab Emirates whose final height is kept a secret.
This scaled prediction will pay (height-800)/2, where “height” is the height in meters of the antenna/spire of Burj Dubai as of Dec 31, 2008.
If the height is greater than 1000 meters, the claim will return 100 Moolers and a height less than 800 meters would return 0 Moolers. The claim may be judged earlier if the tower is finished and occupied before the arbitration deadline.
More Info:
In February 2007, the Burj Dubai surpassed the Sears Tower as the building with the most floors in the world. As of 20 May 2007 the tower’s height was 460.1 meters (1,510 feet), with 129 floors.(source)
The projected final height of the Burj Dubai is officially being kept a secret due to competition; however, figures released by a contractor on the project have suggested a height of around 808 metres (2,651 feet).Based on this height, the total number of habitable floors is expected to be around 162. However, on the project’s official website, an interior graphic of an elevator panel shows floor numbers up to 195. (source)
100 shares of this prediction [symbol: BURJ-DUBAI-776] are available for purchase on the PublicGyan exchange at an initial price of 30 moolers each, following Dutch rules.
This claim states that the US forces would attacks Iran on the order of the President of USA.
A event like a rogue general ordering a military attack without prior authorization from the U.S. President is not enough to judge this claim as true.
In the event ambiguity, moderators will base their judgment on the intent of the claim. The claim can be judged earlier if the event happens before the arbitration deadline.
100 shares of this prediction [symbol: US-IRAN-775] are available for purchase on the PublicGyan exchange at an initial price of 50 moolers each, following Dutch rules.
Prediction THAROOR-127 stated that
Sashi Tharoor will be elected as the next UN Secretary-General.
As reported on several news sites, after the latest informal Security Council ballot results, Shashi Tharoor had announced he was leaving the race.
Hence, this prediction is being judged as FALSE and is closed, returning 0 Moolers per share.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price had climbed to 60 Moolers/share before the arbitration. Unfortunately, this time around, the public predicted wrong!
Prediction MSFT-AOL-2006 stated that
Microsoft will acquire a stake of at least 10% of AOL by 27 September 2006.
As there is no confirmed report by any news agency that Microsoft has acquired a stake of 10% in AOL by 03rd October 2006, this prediction is being judged as FALSE and is closed, returning 0 Moolers per share.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price dropped and stabilised to 30 Moolers/share in early 2006. The public predicts correctly, again!
PUBLICGYAN-14 predicated that
Public Gyan, in other words this very knowledge exchange, will be in business on 2 Sep 2006.
Taking into account that, on last count, 14 shares were traded in last five days, PublicGyan is judged to “be in business” and by extension this prediction is juded as TRUE.
The trading on this prediction started at 65 Moolers per share. The selling price stabilised at 80 Moolers/share in early 2006, then rising to 96 Moolers per share, where it remained till the end.
Pankaj’s comment on the ‘paradoxical’ nature of the prediction is worth pondering on.
Prediction MERKETL-77 stated that
This prediction states that Angela Merkel will submit her resignation from the post of Chancellor of Germany by August 31st 2006.
As there is no confirmed report by any news agency that Angela Merkel has resigned from the post of Chancellor of Germany by 31st August 2006, this prediction is being judged as FALSE and is closed, returning 0 Moolers per share.
The trading on this prediction started at 40 Moolers per share. The selling price dropped to 5 Moolers/share in early 2006, then rising to 10 Moolers per share, before stabilising there, where it remained till the end. The public predicts correctly, again!
The Indian Express has not reported before the arbitration deadline that Lalu Prasad Yadav has been jailed and hence the prediction LALU-JAILED-2006 titled “Lalu Prasad Yadav: In jail by mid-2006″ is being judged FALSE and is closed, returning 0 Moolers per share.
The trading on this prediction started at 50 Moolers per share. The selling price dropped to 5 Moolers/share in November 2005, before stabilising at 25 soon afterwards, where it remained till the end. The public predicts correctly, again!
There is no news on BBC Online that Osama bin Laden has been captured dead or alive and hence the prediction OBL-CAUGHT-06 titled “Bin Laden: Will be captured by June 2006″ is being judged FALSE and is closed, returning 0 Moolers per share.
The trading on this prediction started at 15 Moolers per share. The selling price rose to 30 Moolers/share during February - May before dropping to 4 Moolers. Another win for PublicGyan.