It’s about Public Knowledge Exchange
The price of gold has been driven over the $500 an ounce rate for the first time in nearly 20 years! As a result, the GOLD500-05 prediction is judged as TRUE and returns 100 moolers per share. A big “Thanks” to Satish for bringing this development to our notice.
The prediction started with an IPO of 40 moolers per share and just before arbitration, it was at 59 moolers per share. PublicGyan gets it right again!
Natwar Singh has been stripped of the External Affairs Ministry portfolio and hence the prediction has been judged TRUE and returns 100 moolers per share.
Natwar Singh, India’s External Affairs Minister has been named by Volcker report as ‘non-contractual beneficiaries’ in the Iraq Oil-for-Food scam. BJP has been demanding his resignation and some sections inside the Congress party has also started asking tough questions.
This prediction states that Natwar Singh will resign or be dropped from his present position before the arbitration date. Submission of resignation letter, even if it is not accepted will result in a TRUE result for the prediction.
This prediction can be closed before the arbitration date if the event happens and is brought to the notice of the moderators.
100 shares of this prediction [symbol: NATWAR-SINGH-89] are available for purchase on the PublicGyan exchange at an initial price of 60 moolers each, following Dutch rules.
After Harriet Miers withdrew her nomination, President Bush has nominated Samuel Alito for the United States Supreme Court. While this nomination has made conservatives happy, the liberals are not particularly enthused.
The Senate hearings are set to start soon and this prediction states that he will be confirmed.
The prediction will return false if the nomination is withdrawn or the candidate is not confirmed. The decision will be based on reports appearing in The New York Times.
In case the nomination process takes more time to yield a result, the arbitration date will be extended as needed. If the event occurs before the arbitration date, if can be closed earlier, if brough to the notice of the moderators.
100 shares of this prediction (Symbol: ALITO-88) are available at an initial price of 50 Moolers following Dutch rules.
PublicGyan’s recent performance
Lalu & Ganguly out, Merkel in. PublicGyan got these right
Lalu Prasad Yadav’s drubbing at the hands of the NDA was strongly indicated at PublicGyan. BIHAR-ELEC-16 (BJP alliance Oct-05 elections) was issued at 60 moolers. It rose to over 90 moolers within a month and stayed there, indicating that traders felt that Lalu would lose in a big way.
Similarly Ganguly’s ouster as India’s cricket captain was strongly indicated, with SGANGULY-28 (Saurav Ganguly loses his captaincy by end-2005) hitting close to 100 moolers and staying there. As in the case of the Bihar elections, this prediction-share too registered a high trading volume, thereby improving the quality of its prediction.
MERKEL-9 (Angela Merkel becomes chancellor by Oct-05) was one of the first few predictions to trade on PublicGyan, and given the transaction volume, traders got this one right too. So too for OIL-16, where a price of 35 moolers suggested that traders did not strongly expect oil prices to touch $70 per barrel in September 2005.
But among the well traded predictions, traders got BHAGWATI-19 (Jagdish Bhagwati wins a Nobel Prize for economics in 2005) wrong. But several traders felt that it was the Nobel Committee that got it wrong, and Bhagwati deserved to win it anyway.
With just over 150 traders, the PublicGyan Exchange is demonstrating a capability to get predictions right. According to feedback from users and advisers, completely opening up the exchange to new users will help create more liquidity and help improve the quality and accuracy of the predictions. Another suggestion has been to allow short-selling. Indeed, these are the very things that PublicGyan will incorporate in the coming revision. Stay tuned and keep trading.